10 tech Predictions for 2010

Every December I look forward to compiling a list of predictions for the coming calendar year. I have been doing this for almost 20 years now, and thanks to a combination of heavy researchand a little bit of luck, I've had a pretty high accuracy rate. Sure, there have been some misses in the past, but the majority have been on the money. Don't believe me? Check out last year's list.

Admittedly, my eighth prediction was off by a mile, but in my defense, I said it was an outrageous prediction, right off the bat. I predicted that Microsoft might get desperate and buy Research in Motion to shore up its smartphone business. That didn't happen, of course. It's still a tantalizing thought, though. Windows Mobilecontinued to lose major marketshare to RIM and Apple, and Microsoft is going to have to do something huge in the mobile space, if it's going to catch up. Windows Mobile 7.0 is supposed to be a major improvement when it comes out in 2010, but there's no sure bet that the company will be able to regain marketshare from Apple, RIM, and Google's Android.

But that's enough about 2009. Let's get onto my predictions for next year.

1. The netbook market will peak in 2010. Netbooks have become the darlings of the PC industry. Ten million were sold last year, and about 30 million will sell this year. According to estimates, 35-37 million will sell in 2010. I predict that number will be the peak, with sales declining in 2011. Mainstream laptops with bigger screens and better processors will be available for roughly the same price, giving consumers more bang for their buck. Also, a new breed of laptops called ultrathins will emerge in big numbers next year, filling users' need for smaller and lighter notebooks. They'll be a bit pricier than netbooks, but they'll have larger screens and keyboards, winning over a number of consumers.

2. Cloud computing will suffer a setback. If you followed the industry in the 1990s, you remember that every year of that decade was predicted to be the "year of the network." That mantra started in 1990, and though we continued to make strides on that front, the full effect and integration of the Internet, applications, and systems within a network didn't really come together until about three years ago. Now we're being told that 2010 will be "the year of cloud computing." If I was predicting end of decade trends, cloud computing might be on that list. However, there could be a major security threat aimed at our cloud networks that is so drastic it could set back the timeframe for shifting businesses and users to the cloud-based model. Maybe I've been hanging around with too many cyber security types lately. They tell me that their biggest fear is that cyber criminals will try to take down our power grids and financial systems. Many top security experts spend most of their time fighting off such attacks. But even if cyber criminals don't succeed, there may still be successful attacks on existing cloud services that will dissuade users from storing more information in the cloud.

3. Tablets and mini-tablets become the next big thing in mobile. Given all of the rumors swirling around the Apple tablet, as well as the number of mini-tablets that will debut next year, this isn't the riskiest prediction. If Apple does come out with a tablet tied to its existing ecosystem of software, it could launch the industry down a new path for mobile computing. Some see these devices as something of a rehash of early Web pads, but much has changed since those days. The primary factor is the evolution of the Web into an environment where applications abound. They are now a part of our computing fabric. However, dedicated apps like the ones found on today's smartphones would work well on a number of other devices. I don't expect tablets to sell in great numbers next year, but I do believe that 2010 will be the year they take root and begin to redefine mobile computing.

4. Mini-tablets become the new e-book platform. The publishing industry is quickly embracing mini-tablets before the devices even hit the market. The industry sees them as a new platform that will allow for creative multimedia content delivery for books, magazines, and newspapers. Many publishers are already working with Adobe to create next generation content for these devices. 2010 will be a year of experimentation for both publishers and hardware developers. We may well look back at 2010 as the year when publishers reinvented books, magazines, and newspapers.

5. More industry consolidation. I won't be surprised if at least one of the top 10 PC vendors throws in the towel or merges its business with a stronger company in the newyear. The industry has become brutal. Margins are shrinking and its become harder and harder to meet consumer expectations. There was a time when the industry was operating on margins well above 20 percent. Now most have to operate with margins close to or under five percent. Competition has become fierce. Fighting for shelf space in retail is more difficult than ever. The good news is that most of us market researchers believe that PC sales wil be up by 12 percent in 2010, so things will be looking up in terms of unit sales. However, if margins keep falling, more consolidation could happen next year. —next: Predictions 6-10 >